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The Dow is overbought May 1st

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warning3 May 1, 2013 (Chinavestor) There are a good number of DJIA components in trouble according to the overbought monitor. The Dow itself is overbought to begin with. Then Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Du Pont (NYSE:DD) are stocks of concern because they not only have stepped out of their trading envelope big time but have approached theoretical highs as well. Downside risk exceeds upside potential for both. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) are stocks with momentum along with Exxon Mobile (NYSE:XOM). But the good news is that these stocks haven't reached theoretical highs yet.

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Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) is the big loser as of the Dow but earnings are hurting General Electric (NYSE:GE) and IBM (NYSE:IBM) as well. None of them are considered oversold so a quick bounce back is unlikely.

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Overbought A technical condition that occurs when prices are considered too high and susceptible to a decline. Overbought conditions can be classified by analyzing the chart pattern or with indicators such as the one above. A sharp advance from $15 to $30 in 2 weeks might lead a technician to believe that a security is overbought. Or, a security is sometimes considered overbought when the stock is trading out of its trading envelope and is approaching the theoretical high. It is important to keep in mind that overbought is not necessarily the same as being bearish. It merely infers that the stock has risen too far too fast and might be due for a pullback.

Oversold A technical condition that occurs when prices are considered too low and ripe for a rally. Oversold conditions can be classified by analyzing the chart pattern or with indicators such as the one above. A sharp decline from $30 to $15 in 2 weeks might lead a technician to believe that a security is oversold. Or, a security is sometimes considered oversold when the stock is trading below its trading envelope and is approaching theoretical lows. It is important to keep in mind that oversold is not necessarily the same as being bullish. It merely infers that the security has fallen too far too fast and may be due for a reaction rally.

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