China ADR stock research

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Asia’s emerging economies will perform better than earlier expected this year and next as the world economy slowly recovers from its worst slump since the Great Depression, Credit Suisse Group AG said today.

“The wounds created by the crisis are at least at the early stages of a healing process,” the bank said in a quarterly report on emerging markets released today. “Credit Suisse economists expect the growth outlook of most emerging Asia countries to improve in the second half of 2009 as the global economy slowly moves into a healing phase,” it said in a statement accompanying the report.

The Zurich-based bank raised its 2009 economic growth forecast for Asia outside Japan to 4.7 percent from 4.4 percent, and increased the 2010 estimate to 7.3 percent from 6.7 percent. Excluding Japan, China and India, the region’s economy will likely contract 2 percent this year, reflecting declines in the past six months, Credit Suisse said.

Asian policy makers, who have slashed borrowing costs and pledged more than $950 billion of stimulus plans, have started saying their economies may be past the worst of the worldwide recession. Taiwan’s central bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve left their key interest rates unchanged this week, while South Korea raised its forecast for gross domestic product this year.

The International Monetary Fund, which is forecasting a global contraction of only 1.3 percent this year and growth of 2.4 percent in 2010, said June 19 that it plans to revise estimates “modestly upward.”

Industrial production in the region’s economies will increase “gradually” in the coming quarters, Credit Suisse said in today’s statement.

China, India

The bank raised its forecast for China’s 2010 GDP growth to 9 percent from 8.5 percent, and maintained this year’s estimate at 8 percent.

Asia’s second-largest economy probably “bottomed” in the first quarter, “thanks to the effective implementation of fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion,” Dong Tao, Credit Suisse’s chief regional economist for non-Japan Asia, said in the statement. “The focus has shifted away from ‘when is the bottom’ to ‘when to tighten,’ but the process is likely to be slow and mild.”

India’s GDP growth forecast was raised to 6.2 percent for the fiscal year that began in April, while Indonesia’s 2009 estimate was increased to 3.6 percent from 2.8 percent, Credit Suisse said. The bank also raised forecasts for Vietnam, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

The recent Indian election result, which gave Prime Minister Singh second five-year term and was “well received by the market,” will help boost capital flows to the South Asian nation, Credit Suisse said.

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