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ADP numbers vs GDP growth

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glass_halfull April 30, 2014 (Chinavestor) Is the glass half full or half empty now that latest ADP numbers contradict anemic GDP growth? The US economy came to a 0.1% growth in the first quarter of the year, a painful rate of recovery. Still, jobs creation was all right, over 200,000 jobs a month according to the latest ADP numbers. So what's the real state of the US economy? Was it just an unusually harsh winter that dented into economy growth or is it something else?

That question is hard to answer. Couple of important milestones.

  • Private jobs creation is on track to make up for all the losses following the 2008 melt down. The US economy added 220,000 jobs in April and is just 200,000 away from recovering all the 2008-2009 losses.

payroll_april2014

  • US housing prices were virtually unchanged in February and are up 12.9% for the past 12 month, all the gains coming from prior months.
  • Consumer confidence slips in April but March was a high benchmark anyway. March consumer confidence reading was the best since 2008.
  • Durable goods order jump 2.6% in March
  • Initial jobless benefit claims surge 24,000 in April to 329,000. But part of it is seasonality and some argue that the long term trend is encouraging.
  • Single family home sale down 14.5% in March.

 



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