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191K in March from a distance

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car5 April 2, 2014 (Chinavestor) The private sector added 191,000 jobs in March, a number just below the psychologically important 200,000/month figure. The best approach to see how much 191K really is, we created the following chart. This chart follows nonfarm employee numbers for each month starting January 2007.

payroll_march2014

One of the first observation about current 191K jobs is that this number fits comfortably in the middle of the jobs creation cycle since October 2010. This is when the US economy started to add jobs on a rather constant basis.

March 2014 jobs number is a whole lot better than the three months data before it. Remember, December 2013 was a low point of a mere 75,000 jobs.

On the other hand, 191,000 jobs a month is not all that impressive. The US economy lost 8.67 million jobs following the 2008 financial meltdown and has recovered 8.25 million so far. This means we are still in the red by as much as 420,000 jobs. Given the average of the last three month data, 160K, we need another two and a half month to be even.

However the workforce has grown substantially since 2008 and thus we need a 160K/month jobs creation to last at least till the end of the year to get back where we were in 2007.

The US government debt level has grown over twofold since 2008 and thus the question remains: how healthy the US economy really is.



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