July 24, 2013 (Chinavestor) Based on gas pricing reforms and higher oil prices, we expect Petrochina’s business prospects to improve over the prospective quarters. Given Petrochina’s share of the natural gas market, they are likely to overturn downstream losses incurred in 2012 and improve share priced significantly in 2013. The revisions in gas prices are predicted to be considerably higher for industrial users than residential users. Petrochina has traded at PER of 12.5x in 2012, reflecting a 56% premium over CNOOC, who utilizes more aggressive E&P tactics and realised higher EPS values. 2013 estimates place PER at 13.3x, an increased premium, however, justified given PTR is able to capitalize further from price reforms. PTR and CNOOC are both susceptible to macro risks, which we estimate to deliver upsides in oil prices in 2013.
- Increasing revenues compromised by NDRC impositions
2.8% increase in Q1 2013 compared to that of a year earlier. Downstream losses in 2012 met with stable E&P production. Operating expenses concerned with O&G operations to decrease given windfall threshold increases from $50 to $70 per barrel.
- E&P Operations key to PTR performance
We estimate capital expenditure concerning Exploration and Production to increase to RMB 239,600 million in 2013, representing 67% of overall segmental expenditure. The ‘Peak Growth in Oil and Gas Reserves’ program will devote extra funding to ensure oil reserves are not severely matured.
- China consumption to add to Petrochina performance
The PRC and NDRC are striving for a cleaner environment, where natural gas is acting as the catalyst for this revolution in a country which is blighted by air pollution. Car production embedded with Natural Gas engines are on the rise to add to this reform, which will add to Petrochina’s value.