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Ramifications of Stronger Yuan

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think_1 October 10, 2011 (Chinavestor) China's currency strengthened to 6.3586 vs. the greenback, a five year low for the Yuan. China's economy remained resilient compared to western counterparts, making a case for such as move. China is fighting inflation and have increased rates and bank reserve rations to neutralize excess capital several times since 2008. The trend is decisive and the question then remains: how to benefit from it.

Chinese airliners, China Southern Airlines (NYSE:ZNH) and China Eastern Airlines (NYSE:CEA) are obvious winners. Domestic Chinese companies, like telecoms and petrochemicals are also winners. Petrochina (NYSE:PTR) will continue to buy oil in dollars but sell it in Yuan. Refiners, Sinopec (NYSE:SNP), for example, will also benefit. China Mobile (NYSE:CHL) will make the same in Yuan but more in dollar, and thus its stock price in dollars is expected to climb. But export oriented stocks will take a hit from a stronger yuan. Mindray Medical (NYSE:MR) and solar stocks, Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) or LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK) are adversely effected.

 

 

Exchange rate, U.S. dollar vs. Chinese Yuan January 2007 - October 2011

5y_yuan


Chinese airliners will certainly benefit. For one, their debt is is dollars ( purchase of aircraft) but their sales in Yuan. A stronger Yuan will go far servicing debt. China Southern Airlines (NYSE:ZNH) commences the largest domestic traffic in China. This company will benefit the most from a stronger Yuan because its sales is in Yuan but expenses in dollar. China Eastern Airlines (NYSE:CEA) is almost as good as its larger rival. But Air China (HKG:0753), China's largest international carrier, will benefit less on international ticket sales.

Oil majors will also benefit. They will continue to buy oil in dollars, paying less for it compared to their home base which collects Yuan. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (NYSE:SNP), Asia's largest refiner, will collect more along with Petrochina Co. Ltd. (NYSE:PTR), another company with a huge refining capacity.

Chinese telecoms will also benefit. China Mobile (NYSE:CHL), the largest mobile operator in the world, will collect sales in Yuan and spend in Yuan and dollar (telecom equipment). Imported capital expenditures will fall, increasing bottom line. Plus bottom line will convert to more in dollars when the Yuan strengthens. China Telecom (NYSE:CHA) and China Unicom (NYSE:CHU) will also benefit.

Export oreiented Chinese stocks will take a  hit though. Li & Fung Ltd. (HKG:0494), the largest exporter of consumer goods, will make less. NYSE listed Mindray Medical (NYSE:MR), a Chinese medical equipment maker with a significant export market, will be hurt. Technology stock, Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) and LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK) will collect less on their export orders but pay more to employees in return.



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