August 2014 (Chinavestor) We argued in the latest Newsletter that we didn’t see a reason to alter an overall bullish sentiment for the rest of the summer. We continue to believe in an overall positive market sentiment for August and the fall for the same reason as before. There is not any major development on the horizon that would stop overall bullish momentum. There are going to be hiccups on the way, no doubt about that. Such derailment was evident in the last week of July when the Dow recoded the biggest weekly loss since January. But the overall trend is expected to be modestly bullish due to prolonged low interest rates and lack of major policy change from the FED.
Let’s take a look what has happened in last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6% in July, erasing most of the earlier gains of the year. The index is up a mere 0.7% YTD. The NASDAQ composite fared better, falling just 0.9% in July. The index is still up 5.5% YTD, a positive development. Interestingly, the Hang Seng Index surged 6.8% in July and is now back in the black for the first time in 2014. The China ADR Index, tracking the performance of NYSE and NASDAQ listed Chinese stocks, was in-line with the Hang Seng up until the last week of July when a broad sell-off in New York took a toll on the index. All told, the China ADR index advanced 4.4% in July and is up 1.7% YTD.