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After a 25% jump, embrace for a bumpy ride

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rollercoaster October 5, 2011 (Chinavestor) Shares of Focus Media Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ:FMCN) surged a record 25.9% on Tuesday. It was the most for any ADR that day and the most in FMCN's stock market history as well. The obvious question is this: what's next?

FMCN_2011104

We looked back in history and listed those day when shares of Focus Media Holdings (NASDAQ:FMCN) surged over 20%. We found five such instances since July 13, 2005 including yesterday. Here is a recap of significant market days of the stock.


Date Big Up Day Following day Day 2 after big day Day 3 after big day
3/12/2009 +20.9% -7.3% -5.1% +8.4%
12/19/2008 +19.3% -16.2% no big move no big move
12/10/2009 +18.6% -4.8% no big move no big move
10/28/2008 +22.7% +11.1% +12.9% no big move
10/13/2008 +21.1% -4.4% -13.6% no big move
9/18/2008 +20.6% +16.3% -3.8% no big move

 

Four out of six times the stock price FELL the following day and out of those instances the stock continued to fell on the second day following in the big jump.

Two out of six times the stock continued to show SIGNIFICANT strength and in one occasion it gained another 12.9% on the second day after the big jump.

While there are not enough observations to make a statistically competent analysis, one thing is for sure. The next day after significant market days is highly volatile and even on day 2 after the big day, shares of Focus Media Holding (NASDAQ:FMCN) move.

And just how much Focus Media (NASDAQ:FMCN) was oversold before Tuesday, along with Sina Corp. (NASDAQ:SINA) and Home Inns & hotels Management (NASDAQ:HMIN), watch the corresponding chart here. China technology stocks are oversold.



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