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 Tuesday, February 12, 2008

A good friend of mine just sent me a note that I think you may want to read. Thank you R.

Some thoughts on investing - based on what has and has not worked for me over the past 15 years.

Let me start by saying that I am a retired Engineer and therefore I make no recommendations with regard to buying or selling stocks or securities of any kind. The information contained herein may not be correct. This is just a history of my past experience and I pass it on in a hope that it may provide some insights as to what has worked for me.

I believe that investing is a strict discipline and should follow certain rules.

  1. We are in business to make money. I will always remember the reaction of my Broker when a client made the remark that it is only "Play money." Her reply was that "You work hard for your money and you should work hard to protect it. I am very good at what I do. If you want to play then go to a casino and lose it. If you work with me it will be with the intention to make money." Wow! I never forgot her advice. I have been in Investment clubs where I heard that "It is only $25.0 or we are not really here to make money."
  2. We own a stock as long as it is making money for us. When we make money it is silly to lose it. We should spend more time planning what to do if a stock goes down than if a stock goes up. Some investors use the excuse that they are long term investors when their stock loses 40% and is still going down. Remember that if a stock goes down 40% it has to go back up 80% to go back where it started.  If a stock stops making money for us then we sell it and buy a performing stock. We cannot get attached to any particular stock in an emotional way. If the stock starts to go back up then buy back in. The commission is $9.95. We keep a stock then so long as it is making money for us. This could be a week, a month or 10 years.
  3. We place stop loss on a stock at the same time we purchase it. As the stock moves up in price so does our stop loss price. I work with Charles Schwab as my broker and it takes just a few minutes to see my account.
    Our greatest risk is when we first purchase a stock. Once we have made money then we lock into profits. I have just came back from a 15 day cruise to Hawaii. If all of my positions have been closed out I would have made money and paid for my cruise. I may not have made $10,000.0 but I would have made $7,500.0 and enjoyed the cruise. Rather than look at a loss position because the market had crashed.
    When I place a stop loss on a sock this is recorded on Schwab's computer. If the loss was at $15.0 I may not get our at $15.0 but I have always been close. If I rely on calling my Broker I will have trouble reaching him if 40 other clients are trying to do the same thing. We may be on a trip and be completely unaware that our stock is in trouble and by the time we do we have lost a lot of money. That is why I add a stop loss at the time I buy a stocks. This takes about 10 seconds.
  4. Before we buy a stock we perform both a Fundamental and a Technical analysis. Some investors rely purely on Fundamental analysis while others rely on Technical analysis. The answer is that a sensible person gathers all the information he or she can. Some do not. They are allowed to drive cars, get married and have children. Technical analysis can get complicated so a graphical analysis will provide a valuable insight and takes a few minutes.
  5. We never, never buy a stock when it is going down. Never. I use Worden's TC 2000 charting system and I set up stock portfolios. I have Cramer's recommendations, Warren Buffet's top 6 holdings, Value line, Motley Fool and others. They have one thing in common, they are all going down.
    One analyst recommended buying a stock knowing that it was going down but you buy increments as it goes down like a dollar cost averaging on your losses.
  6. You never buy a stock where the price/time curve is horizontal. In 2005 it was selling at $56.0 and today it is still selling at $56.0.
  7. If you buy a stock primarily for the yield then the stock must show a strong pattern.
    It does not make sense to gain 10% yield when the stock loss 20%. The fundamental analysis should also show that the future estimated earnings will support payment of the yield. A price/time graph should show a continuing positive slope. Past performance is of course no guarantee of future performance but a t least a positive slope has a positive momentum going for it at the time we purchase the stock. At one time utilities were called "Window stocks." They have been hit pretty hard of late.

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