Production cost will rise
In the annual meeting of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), officials have pointed that business in 2008 will operate in a difficult environment. Due to the high pressure on the material price level in China, which is caused by the high domestic demand and overseas resource market, material and resource price may rise rapidly. Moreover, with reform deepening, resource, environmental, land and labour costs will increase, so the production cost will go up accordingly.
Nowadays, global economic growth has slowed down. Therefore, the productivity, resulted from previous investment, will be released in 2008, and the competition will be more severe. If business cannot adapt themselves to such a circumstance, e.g. innovation and management.
Government may intervene in the coal price
Currently, “price stabilization” has become NDRC’s main duty and NDRC has made a great effort to build up a warning system for demands for agricultural and down-stream products, and any price changes. For abnormal fluctuations of particular products, such as agricultural products and real estate market, and oil price, NDRC requires a swift reaction.
Actually, NDRC has expanded “price supervising system”, from consumer products to agricultural product, chemical fertilizer, oil products (not crude oil), and even real estate. The officials has expressed that if current unstable coal supply leads to any price fluctuations, it cannot excluded that NDRC will intervene in the coal price.
For currently temporary interventions in prices, NDRC said that these temporary policies would be discharged once increases in these prices were released.
Macroeconomics is “unclear”
Under 2008 high price pressure, NDRC officials forecast that the macroeconomics is “complicated” and “unclear”. The challenges and potential risks faced are both international and domestic.
Internationally, NDRC believes that global growth will remain the same, but fluctuation and slow-down will emerge; overall effect of the US sub-prime debt crisis is still unclear; fluctuations of global financial markets will be more severe; the US dollar will depreciate continuously; oil, iron ore, copper and agricultural product prices will remain high and even rise; and trade protectionism against China can be more severe.
Domestically, economic growth is still in risk of “overheating”; price level stays high and there is a higher pressure on price in 2008; energy saving and pollution control are rigorous; it is still difficult to stabilize agricultural development and raise formers’ income; and nevertheless, there are many problems in the people’s livelihood.
Original article is here: http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2008-01/29/content_7513913.htm
国家发改委昨日（28日）在2007全年经济运行新闻发布会上坦言，2008年，部分要素价格还将持续上涨。这将给下游消费市场价格继续增加上行压力。
推动企业生产成本增加
此前，在发改委2007年度工作会议上，国家发改委主任马凯
在此背景下，发改委认为企业生产经营的外部环境不容乐观。
发改委表示，受国内需求旺盛和国际市场能源、原材料价格大幅上升等因素影响，流通环节生产资料价格涨势明显加快。
“随着改革的深入和节能减排工作的推进，资源、环境成本和土地、劳动力价格都将上升，这些对于实现科学发展是十分必要的，但也将推动企业生产成本的增加。”发改委经济运行局副局长朱宏任称。
目前，世界经济放缓趋势日益明显，贸易摩擦将 继续增多。朱宏任认为，近年来一些基础原材料行业投资形成的产能将在2008年充分释放，从而增加市场竞争压力。企业如果不能及时调整发展战略，更加注重自主创新、节能减排和提高产品附加值，加强企业管理，今年的生产经营压力将会更大。
可能干预煤炭价格
目前，发改委在“稳定价格”方面全方位部署工作。健全大宗农产品、初级产品供求和价格变动的监测预警制度，做好市场供应和价格应急预案。
马凯此前已要求整个发改委系统特别要注意少数商品价格的异常波动，见事要早，行动要快，措施要实，防止向更大范围传导。密切跟踪价格、粮食、房地产和资本市场，以及世界经济和石油价格等发展变化，及时发现苗头性、倾向性问题，提出操作性强的对策建议。
事实上，发改委对于“价格”跟踪监测范围已开始扩散，由消费产品、追溯至粮食、化肥、成品油甚至房地产等各个领域。昨天的新闻发布会上，朱宏任也表示，如果当前煤炭供应不稳出现价格波动，也不排除发改委采取煤炭价格干预的可能。
针对目前已经实施的临时价格干预措施，发改委新闻发言人李朴民昨日表示，这种临时性的价格干预措施没有改变企业自主经营、定价的地位，并且在涨价情况缓解之后将取消。
宏观经济“不明朗”
2008年在整体价格上行压力之下，预测整体宏观走势，发改委官员均强调形势的“复杂性”和“不明朗”。
朱宏任昨日说，近年来，加强和改善宏观调控的成效逐步显现，工业经济继续保持较快发展有着良好的基础。与此同时，工业经济运行中也面临着一些挑战和潜在的风险，必须予以高度重视，对形势的复杂性和不确定性要有充分的估计。
据记者获悉，发改委将2008年经济发展仍面临的挑战和潜在风险总结为国际、国内两大因素。
从国际看，发改委认为2008年世界经济保持增长的基本趋势不会有大的改变，但发生波动和增长放缓的可能性增加。美国次贷危机前景尚不明朗，对美国等主要经济体的进一步影响还难以估计；全球主要资本市场震荡加剧，美元持续贬值，国际市场石油、铁矿石、铜、粮食等初级产品价格仍可能居高不下，甚至继续上涨；针对我国的贸易保护主义会进一步强化。
从国内看，发改委认为2008年宏观面临的主要问题是：经济增长由偏快转为过热的危险性依然存在；价格上涨压力更加明显：节能减排形势仍然严峻；农业稳定发展和农民持续增收难度较大；民生领域仍有不少亟待解决的矛盾。（第一财经日报 作者:宋蕾 选稿:王秉杰）
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