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Chinese ADRs are trading mixed today with Baidu.com (BIDU) taking the lead and Sohu.com (SOHU) taking a beating. Easing oil prices helped spur the DJIA to 11,315.00 points by 1:00 P.M. Lowering demand for the black gold became obvious today when statistics showed that U.S. drivers drove 3.5% less miles than last year, the biggest ever drop for the measure during the busy summer holiday season. Customs data showed that demand for oil dropped by 891,000 barrels in June vs. May, a sign that high price of oil is unsustainable. Many expect crude to come back to the $100 level within reasonable time. The greenback strengthened against both the Euro and the yen, adding fuel for the slide in the oil price.
Looking at the U.S. listed Chinese stock universe, Baidu.com is shining the brightest today so far. China's premium search engine company is up $4.06 or 1.21% by 1:00 P.M., continuing a rally that seems to have no end. The price of the stock is up 17.8% since June 23 (chart here) when the company announced better then expected second quarter results plus a positive guidance for the upcoming quarter.
Oil slipped over $3 today on demand concerns, helping to ease the pain Chinese refiners feel from high oil prices. The Chinese government has a strong say in gasoline prices at the pump, a time when crude prices are near all time highs. As a result, Chinese refiners have to swallow the cost of artificially low gasoline and diesel prices at the pump. As a result, any significant price change in oil has a tremendous impact on the bottom line of Asia's largest refiner, Sinopec (SNP), and on Petrochina (PTR).
Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL), a Chinese solar company is among the best performers of the day. The stock is up $1.67 or 6.52% just today. Strong market sentiment contributes to the rally as the following chart testifies. All Chinese solar companies are on fire but Solarfun (SOLF), with TSL taking the lead followed closely by ReneSola (SOL) and LDK Solar (LDK). LDK is to announce 2008 Q2 on Aug 11, 2008. (Click here for chart) Trina Solar improved 2008 second quarter guidance on July 17, and investors are betting that the company will deliver robust sales.
Home Inns & Hotel Management (HMIN) is trading up $1.48 or a staggering 10.24%. See chart here. There are no company specific news out to spur the rally so it is most likely a technical correction following an 15% dip in the last four days. The stock is one of the worst performers among Chinese ADRs this year, trading 55.22% lower since January 1st. Click here for chart.
China Life Insurance Company (LFC), China's largest life insurer is up $1.39 or 2.49% nearing the $60 mark. Performance of the stock is tied to the outlook of the Shanghai Composite Index, since LFC derives a significant portion of her earnings from investment related activities. LFC owns a large portion of China's largest lender, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Petrochina (PTR), China's largest oil producer. Chinese banks have been reporting extremely strong earnings and have a positive outlook, largely contributing LFC to shine again.
China Telecom (CHA), China's largest fixed line carrier is trading $.98 or 1.82% up today. The company announced plans to double its current subscriber base by 2010, a growth based on the successful integration of China Unicom's (CHU) CDMA mobile network. As the Chinese telecom industry revamp unfolds, we will see more and more interest for the sector and we regard CHA's move today as a sign for this.
TOP MOVERS - China ADR
7/29/2008 13:00
Name
Symbol
Price
Change
Change%
BAIDU.COM
BIDU
$338.42
$4.06
1.21%
CHINA PETRO & CHE
SNP
$104.22
$3.65
3.63%
CHINA NETCOM GRP
CN
$59.65
$1.97
3.42%
TRINA SOLAR LTD A
TSL
$27.30
$1.67
6.52%
PETROCHINA CO ADS
PTR
$132.02
$1.62
1.24%
HOME INNS & HOTEL
HMIN
$15.93
$1.48
10.24%
CHINA LIFE INS CO
LFC
$57.16
$1.39
2.49%
CTRIP.COM INTL LT
CTRP
$43.57
$1.36
3.22%
CHINA TELECOM CP
CHA
$54.68
$0.98
1.82%
SINOPEC SHANGHAI
SHI
$33.67
$0.91
2.78%
LINKTONE LTD.
LTON
$1.65
-$0.03
-1.78%
JA SOLAR HOLDINGS
JASO
$13.99
-0.21%
APT SATELLITE
ATS
$1.05
-2.78%
GIANT INTERACTIV
GA
$10.03
-$0.09
-0.89%
51JOB
JOBS
$14.70
-$0.11
-0.74%
3SBIO INC
SSRX
$9.10
-$0.13
-1.42%
SOLARFUN POWER
SOLF
$12.36
-$0.15
-1.20%
THE9 LIMITED
NCTY
$22.05
-$0.45
-2.00%
CNOOC LTD ADS
CEO
$141.65
-$3.20
-2.21%
SOHU.COM INC
SOHU
$74.63
-$3.98
-5.06%
On the negative side, Sohu.com (SOHU) is taking the lead by giving up $3.98 or 5.06% today by 1:00 P.M. The company reported impressive 2008 Q2 results just days ago, so today's drop might have caught some by surprise. There are two important things to consider when it comes to today's drop: one is that Sohu is up over 40% year-to-date (chart here), far outperforming archrival Sina Corp's 5.3% YTD performance. The other major concern is Sohu's composition of earnings. The company reported advertising revenue growth of 53% vs. last year to $43.4 million thanks to generous contributions from Adidas and Sony before the Olympic Games. So the growth rate in ads will most likely to slow for the upcoming quarters. On top of the weakness in ad growth is the superb performance of SOHU's in-house developed online game, Tian Long Ba Bu. While the online game section of the company reported far better than expected, intelligent investors realize that this is a one time shot. Key in online game development is sustainability and the best measure for that is game pipeline strength analysis. At Chinavestor we allocate significant resources to study game pipelines of major Chinese game operators and developers and it is clear that Sohu's stellar online game platform is a one time shot. So expect revenue and earnings from this game eventually to flat out and fall. From this respect an IPO is the best way to go, but it won't be an easy task given the weak game pipeline.
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Page rendered at 11/19/2008 5:34:29 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
Disclaimer The opinions expressed herein are my own personal opinions and do not represent my employer's view in anyway.