We took the risk to say a month ago that “we think Chinese equities are nearing the bottom. Looking at Asia and China in particular, we find both macro and micro economic data to fuel our optimism. “ Since then the China ADR Index (CAI) rallied 7.5% in line with the Hang Seng’s 7.0% comeback, outshining the Shanghai Composite’s modest 3.7% rally. Have Chinese equities bottomed out?

We have been bullish on Ctrip.com (CTRP) and you might well ask what’s been going on with the stock today? As you probably noticed the stock tumbled 9.24% to $57.48 on weaker 2008 Q2 forecast. We were not so much surprised by the actual results, in the last analysis of CTRP, released on 3/15/2008, analyst Lin Xu said “Snow Storm caused block of transportation and cancellations of travels which will reduce the profitability of Q1 2008, not to a large extent. Business will recover as the cold season ends.”

Shares of Chinese equities listed on U.S. exchanges, referred to as ADRs, are trading sideways after the open. Large cap stocks seem to be consolidating after yesterday's huge rally with Baidu.com as exception. China's search engine giant, Baidu, is up another $5.27 at $265.66 passing the $260 resistance level easily. Baidu reported strong 2007 Q4 and full year earnings yet was on the low side, following weak market sentiment. But this time when sentiment is undecided, fundamentals came back on play, propelling Baidu back to the $260+ range.

CTRP delivered a well-above-expectation performance in Q4 2007. Its sales revenue was RMB383 million (USD53 million) in Q4 2007, increasing 59% from Q4 2006 and 11% from Q3 2007. Of the revenues in Q4 2007, hotel reservations generated RMB196 million (USD27 million), rising 42% from Q4 2006 and 12% from Q3 2007 and air ticketing generated RMB154 million (USD21 million), increasing 78% from Q4 2006 and 12% from Q3 2007. Packaged tour contributed RMB 22 million (USD3 million), growing 100% from Q4 2006 and 6% from Q3 2007. The annual revenue in 2007 reached RMB1.2 billion (USD164 million), increasing 54% from year 2006. In comparison, its competitor elong, which reported a loss of RMB 14 million, reduces RMB 2.4 million.

Shares of Baidu.com, China's premier search engine, continues the rally it started yesterday on allegation that it acquired web browser company Maxthon. Baidu was heavily oversold lately despite stellar Q4 financial results. At this point Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU) has more upside potential as is demonstrated by its reaction to the positive news. Another top mover is Ctrip.com (CTRP), China's leading online travel agency. The stock is up $4.18 or 7.65% after reporting better than expected Q4 and 2007 full year financial result. Revenue topped forecast while earnings doubled.

Despite sluggish domestic stock performance in 2007 China stock investors have a good reason to cheer. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 96.7 percent on the year, making it the world’s best performing major bourse in 2007. Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong were just as strong, shooting up 59 percent followed closely by the broader Hang Seng Index. Hong Kong blue chips rose 39 percent in 2007, representing its best annual rise since 1999. All major Chinese indices ended 2007 on a high note, prompting questions how long the China bull will run.

With no action in China in due to the Chinese New Year kicking in, U.S. listed Chinese stocks or adrs tracked U.S. market sentiment very closely. Regarding the home market, Wall Street finished a dismal week with a mixed performance Friday as investors grappled with fears about insurers of distressed mortgage-backed bonds and anxiety about the broader economy. The DJIA dropped over 60 points while the NASDAQ composite gained.

Chinese stocks pulled back on jittery U.S. market sentiment after a Federal Reserve official suggested rising inflation could prevent the central bank from making further interest rate cuts. The measure for the performance of Chinese stocks on U.S. exchanges, the China ADR Index (CAI), lost -29.34 points today to close at 838.4.

U.S. listed Chinese stocks came back strongly by the end of the day, NYSE names in particular. China Mobile (CHL), China's largest mobile operator came back especially strong by gaining $2.67 or 3.75 percent on Friday to finish at $77.39. Some of the institutional investors made use of the opportunity to pick up good quality stocks.

U.S. listed Chinese ADRs plunged on Thursday, suffering their worst two-day fall. As the following table shows, the "China ADR Index" (CAI) is down by -12.28% year-to-date (YTD), the "China NYSE Index" (CYI) is down by -11.95% YTD, and the "China NASDAQ Index" (CQI) is down by -21.0% YTD. These indices are market cap weighted and are set at 1,000 as of January 1, 2008.

A near 20 percent correction in four weeks has wiped $700 billion off the Shanghai Stock Exchange, making global investors nervous about a possible China meltdown. Considering the 132% run of the Shanghai Composite in 2006 and a subsequent 125 percent run in 2007 before the current pullback, a bubble theory has ample room to develop. The question is this. Is there a bubble and if so how to hedge against that?

China stocks post biggest weekly loss in a decade: China's main stock index closed Friday with a weekly loss of 8 percent, its biggest weekly drop since May 1997. Chinese ADR portfolio was just as bad with no clear indication where the bottom is. Look up from the table below how your Chinese stocks did.

I have been following Chinese ADRs (U.S. listed Chinese companies) for a long time to realize a change in the dynamics of new IPOs. Investors have to be very selective when it comes to Chines IPOs, especially that high quality Chinese companies seems to choose Hong Kong and Shanghai lately.

The last trading day of September was a happy one. Our favorite proxy for the overall China ADR* universe, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI), closed at $180.00 marking an exact 20% run over the month. What makes this rally even more remarkable is the strong underlying volume. We know that Hong Kong is the home market for the most prominent FXI components. So we found comfort in the news that Hong Kong blue chips rose 0.3 percent amid unprecedented volume on Friday, September 28th, closing out the quarter with their best gain since the end of 1999. The Hang Seng Index gained 13.6 percent for the month and 24.7 percent for the three months ended in September.

What did I predict? If U.S. falls Chinese small caps will tumble. Here it is. Next week Monday and Tuesday will be even worse. Recovery on Wed-Friday. Watch!

I expect China ADRs to beat expectations and cheer investors all over the board. Stocks that I expect to fly today are: YZC, PTR, CEO, BIDU, SNP, LFC, CHL, CHA, CHU plus quality NASDAQ listed Chinese stocks.

Are Chinese share overvalued? This publication compares the U.S. listed China stock universe with valuation of the DJIA, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite stocks.

Mr. Alan Greenspan is still a heavyweight. Some secondary remarks from the former FED Chairman, e.g. the U.S. is showing signs of recession, shook global equity markets overnight.

Earnings announcements are one of the most important moments for public companies. This is a bonanza for fundamental analysts who can x-ray the companies by examining these financial statements.

2006 was “The Year” for Chinese stocks. A seemingly unquenchable investor thirst for all things Chinese helped propel the Shanghai Composite Index to a 130% gain for the year, followed closely by the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index.

While the premise of this article may be surprising to many, e.g. investing in China has never been more secure, the emergence of the Chinese markets is real, and recent events strongly support this premise. Who could have predicted only a short time ago that the IPO of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) on October 27 would draw a record- breaking demand for a public offering?

Investing in Chinese equities is a risky business. But one can ask: how risky? Is there a reliable risk measure geared specifically to investors who navigate in the Chinese stock universe? Our current Newsletter addresses this very important question and will shed light on stocks that are relatively safe and stocks that you should avoid.

Liquidity, or the ability to buy and sell large blocks without effecting the share price, is perhaps the most important factor for institutional investors in choosing where to execute their trades. Looking at the Chinese stock universe from an American investor’s point of view, there are three markets that investors would consider: the NYSE, the NASDAQ and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Investing in Shanghai and Shenzen is still limited for foreigners and is further complicated by corporate accounting differences and information asymmetry.

Based on the enthusiastic feedback we received from several of our clients, we attempt to use the same methodology to give a unique analysis of the NASDAQ listed Chinese stock universe. What makes our analysis very relevant is that seventeen liquid Chinese NASDAQ names reported quarterly earnings in the month of May, 2006.

I can’t help but quote from our February Newsletter, page 4 last paragraph. “Based on our latest field trip to China, Chinavestor.com expects The9 Ltd. (NCTY) to report a nice surprise. On the other hand, we did not see much activity of Shanda’s line of products and expect the battled game and home entertainment developer to slip.” End of quote. So when Shanda released earnings after the close on February 27th, disappointing news did not surprise us. China’s top online game operator said it swung to a quarterly loss and missed Wall Street revenue targets as online game sales weakened, sending its shares down 19 percent after hours.

I can’t help but quote from our February Newsletter, page 4 last paragraph. “Based on our latest field trip to China, Chinavestor.com expects The9 Ltd. (NCTY) to report a nice surprise. On the other hand, we did not see much activity of Shanda’s line of products and expect the battled game and home entertainment developer to slip.” End of quote.